World Cup 2026 · Surprise Index

How much each result defied the betting market.

Updated 2026-08-04 15:00 UTC · 98 matches played · data: Polymarket / bookmaker closing odds + ESPN

🎯 Upset × Exotic — every match, two kinds of surprise

Every surprise has two parts: who won and what the scoreboard said. Each circle is a match with home flag left and away flag right. x-axis = the result was a shock (Upset bits); y-axis = the scoreline was wild (i.e. unexpected per betting markets) for whoever won (Exotic bits). The two add up to Exact bits, which is the strict statistical likelihood of that scoreline to occur.

Show
Ring = total rarity ≥ 6.5 bits ≥ 5 ≥ 4 < 4 ○ group  ▢ knockout Dashed diagonals = equal total · tap a circle for its heatmap
How to read it.

Knockout matches (square markers) are scored at 90 minutes — the pre-match odds behind these metrics price regulation time only, so extra time and shoot-outs aren't counted.

Recent games

Latest match days — how each result scored on both axes

🏆 Biggest surprises so far

Bits = −log₂(chance): each extra bit means half as likely. ≥ 4 bits ≥ 5 bits ≥ 6.5 shock

Every match scored on the two axes above — Upset (the result) + Exotic (the scoreline) = Total bits of surprise.

MatchScoreUpsetExoticTotal ▾
▸France v England4–62.210.212.4~1 in 5345
England goals →
France goals ↓
0123456+
04331
1610631
2710631
357421
43421
5121
6+11
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — France wins below it, England wins above.
▸Algeria v Austria3–31.47.89.2~1 in 577
Austria goals →
Algeria goals ↓
0123456+
0211462
1141551
27521
3221
4
5
6+
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — Algeria wins below it, Austria wins above.
▸Sweden v Tunisia5–11.06.47.4~1 in 171
Tunisia goals →
Sweden goals ↓
0123456+
010641
1121452
210941
35521
4221
511
6+
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — Sweden wins below it, Tunisia wins above.
▸Argentina v Cape Verde3–20.26.46.6~1 in 99
Cape Verde goals →
Argentina goals ↓
0123456+
051
11251
21761
31561
41041
562
6+41
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — Argentina wins below it, Cape Verde wins above.
▸England v Croatia4–20.85.76.5~1 in 89
Croatia goals →
England goals ↓
0123456+
08531
1111251
2111041
37631
4331
511
6+
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — England wins below it, Croatia wins above.
▸Morocco v Haiti4–20.46.16.4~1 in 85
Haiti goals →
Morocco goals ↓
0123456+
0621
11182
21582
31272
4741
5421
6+21
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — Morocco wins below it, Haiti wins above.
▸USA v Belgium1–41.64.76.3~1 in 79
Belgium goals →
USA goals ↓
0123456+
076631
1713841
269631
33431
4121
5
6+
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — USA wins below it, Belgium wins above.
▸Canada v Qatar6–00.45.86.2~1 in 75
Qatar goals →
Canada goals ↓
0123456+
0621
11182
21493
31272
4741
5321
6+21
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — Canada wins below it, Qatar wins above.
▸Netherlands v Sweden5–10.85.46.2~1 in 73
Sweden goals →
Netherlands goals ↓
0123456+
06431
1811521
2910521
36741
43321
5111
6+11
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — Netherlands wins below it, Sweden wins above.
▸Argentina v Egypt3–20.55.66.1~1 in 69
Egypt goals →
Argentina goals ↓
0123456+
0931
11592
21682
31161
4631
521
6+11
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — Argentina wins below it, Egypt wins above.
▸United States v Paraguay4–11.14.85.9~1 in 62
Paraguay goals →
United States goals ↓
0123456+
010741
1111462
29941
35421
4221
5
6+
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — United States wins below it, Paraguay wins above.
▸Mexico v England2–31.44.55.9~1 in 62
England goals →
Mexico goals ↓
0123456+
01311831
11015831
26742
32211
411
5
6+
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — Mexico wins below it, England wins above.
▸Uruguay v Cape Verde2–22.23.35.5~1 in 46
Cape Verde goals →
Uruguay goals ↓
0123456+
01031
116102
21682
31051
4531
521
6+1
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — Uruguay wins below it, Cape Verde wins above.
▸Spain v Cape Verde0–03.81.55.2~1 in 38
Cape Verde goals →
Spain goals ↓
0123456+
031
1731
21351
31561
41251
5831
6+931
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — Spain wins below it, Cape Verde wins above.
▸Norway v Senegal3–21.34.05.2~1 in 38
Senegal goals →
Norway goals ↓
0123456+
087521
1814731
279521
34431
4121
5
6+
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — Norway wins below it, Senegal wins above.
▸Australia v Türkiye2–02.52.75.2~1 in 36
Türkiye goals →
Australia goals ↓
0123456+
081011631
151210631
235531
31211
4
5
6+
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — Australia wins below it, Türkiye wins above.
▸Switzerland v Bosnia & Herzegovina4–10.74.45.1~1 in 34
Bosnia & Herzegovina goals →
Switzerland goals ↓
0123456+
08421
1111141
2121041
38631
4431
511
6+1
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — Switzerland wins below it, Bosnia & Herzegovina wins above.
▸Belgium v Senegal3–21.04.05.1~1 in 33
Senegal goals →
Belgium goals ↓
0123456+
08541
1913621
2910521
35531
4221
511
6+
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — Belgium wins below it, Senegal wins above.
▸Türkiye v United States3–21.93.04.9~1 in 30
United States goals →
Türkiye goals ↓
0123456+
0456421
131096311
2367521
3233211
41111
5
6+
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — Türkiye wins below it, United States wins above.
▸New Zealand v Belgium1–50.34.34.6~1 in 24
Belgium goals →
New Zealand goals ↓
0123456+
025910855
11588644
21233322
31111
4
5
6+
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — New Zealand wins below it, Belgium wins above.
▸Senegal v Iraq5–00.34.24.6~1 in 23
Iraq goals →
Senegal goals ↓
0123456+
0521
1972
21482
31272
4851
5431
6+321
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — Senegal wins below it, Iraq wins above.
▸IR Iran v New Zealand2–21.92.64.5~1 in 23
New Zealand goals →
IR Iran goals ↓
0123456+
09631
1111352
2101041
36521
4221
511
6+
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — IR Iran wins below it, New Zealand wins above.
▸Iraq v Norway1–40.34.24.5~1 in 23
Norway goals →
Iraq goals ↓
0123456+
05111513843
12787421
2122211
3
4
5
6+
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — Iraq wins below it, Norway wins above.
▸England v Ghana0–03.01.54.5~1 in 22
Ghana goals →
England goals ↓
0123456+
051
11061
21572
31372
4951
5531
6+42
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — England wins below it, Ghana wins above.
▸Germany v Curaçao7–10.14.34.4~1 in 21
Curaçao goals →
Germany goals ↓
0123456+
0
11
21111
32321
435321
545421
6+131914721
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — Germany wins below it, Curaçao wins above.
▸Tunisia v Japan0–40.63.84.4~1 in 21
Japan goals →
Tunisia goals ↓
0123456+
08131410521
131096311
213321
311
4
5
6+
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — Tunisia wins below it, Japan wins above.
▸Norway v France1–40.53.94.4~1 in 21
France goals →
Norway goals ↓
0123456+
048109532
12998521
21444211
31111
4
5
6+
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — Norway wins below it, France wins above.
▸Ecuador v Curaçao0–03.11.34.4~1 in 21
Curaçao goals →
Ecuador goals ↓
0123456+
051
11161
21671
31461
41041
5521
6+42
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — Ecuador wins below it, Curaçao wins above.
▸Argentina v Switzerland3–10.83.54.3~1 in 20
Switzerland goals →
Argentina goals ↓
0123456+
011631
1141341
212931
3752
4321
511
6+
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — Argentina wins below it, Switzerland wins above.
▸Ecuador v Germany2–12.51.84.3~1 in 20
Germany goals →
Ecuador goals ↓
0123456+
069107311
1411107311
2355321
312211
4
5
6+
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — Ecuador wins below it, Germany wins above.
▸Netherlands v Japan2–21.82.44.2~1 in 19
Japan goals →
Netherlands goals ↓
0123456+
08642
1914731
289521
34531
4221
511
6+
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — Netherlands wins below it, Japan wins above.
▸South Africa v South Korea1–02.71.54.2~1 in 19
South Korea goals →
South Africa goals ↓
0123456+
0101312731
15139521
234321
3111
4
5
6+
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — South Africa wins below it, South Korea wins above.
▸Qatar v Switzerland1–13.01.24.2~1 in 18
Switzerland goals →
Qatar goals ↓
0123456+
035910854
11688644
21233321
31111
4
5
6+
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — Qatar wins below it, Switzerland wins above.
▸France v Spain0–21.62.54.2~1 in 18
Spain goals →
France goals ↓
0123456+
097621
1814831
279521
33421
4111
5
6+
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — France wins below it, Spain wins above.
▸Brazil v Norway1–22.31.84.1~1 in 18
Norway goals →
Brazil goals ↓
0123456+
07431
1812621
2910521
36631
43321
5111
6+
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — Brazil wins below it, Norway wins above.
▸Haiti v Scotland0–10.73.44.1~1 in 17
Scotland goals →
Haiti goals ↓
0123456+
04686421
129107421
22564311
312221
4111
5
6+
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — Haiti wins below it, Scotland wins above.
▸New Zealand v Egypt1–30.73.44.1~1 in 17
Egypt goals →
New Zealand goals ↓
0123456+
091212731
141210631
224421
31111
4
5
6+
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — New Zealand wins below it, Egypt wins above.
▸Canada v Morocco0–30.93.24.1~1 in 17
Morocco goals →
Canada goals ↓
0123456+
0111311621
16139521
235421
31111
4
5
6+
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — Canada wins below it, Morocco wins above.
▸Portugal v Uzbekistan5–00.23.84.1~1 in 17
Uzbekistan goals →
Portugal goals ↓
0123456+
041
1951
21472
31472
41051
5631
6+521
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — Portugal wins below it, Uzbekistan wins above.
▸Jordan v Argentina1–30.23.84.1~1 in 17
Argentina goals →
Jordan goals ↓
0123456+
051116151064
11566422
21111
3
4
5
6+
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — Jordan wins below it, Argentina wins above.
▸Czech Republic v Mexico0–30.93.24.0~1 in 17
Mexico goals →
Czech Republic goals ↓
0123456+
081010631
151310631
235531
31211
4
5
6+
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — Czech Republic wins below it, Mexico wins above.
▸Türkiye v Paraguay0–12.11.94.0~1 in 16
Paraguay goals →
Türkiye goals ↓
0123456+
09641
11014621
29952
35531
4221
511
6+
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — Türkiye wins below it, Paraguay wins above.
▸Tunisia v Netherlands1–30.23.84.0~1 in 16
Netherlands goals →
Tunisia goals ↓
0123456+
03814151177
11466533
2111111
3
4
5
6+
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — Tunisia wins below it, Netherlands wins above.
▸Colombia v Portugal0–01.92.04.0~1 in 16
Portugal goals →
Colombia goals ↓
0123456+
0688521
151210631
2466321
313211
411
5
6+
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — Colombia wins below it, Portugal wins above.
▸Austria v Jordan3–10.53.54.0~1 in 15
Jordan goals →
Austria goals ↓
0123456+
0731
1121031
214931
31062
4531
521
6+11
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — Austria wins below it, Jordan wins above.
▸Uzbekistan v Colombia1–30.53.43.9~1 in 15
Colombia goals →
Uzbekistan goals ↓
0123456+
07121410621
13997421
213321
311
4
5
6+
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — Uzbekistan wins below it, Colombia wins above.
▸Belgium v Iran0–02.31.63.9~1 in 15
Iran goals →
Belgium goals ↓
0123456+
0731
1111031
213931
39721
4541
5221
6+11
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — Belgium wins below it, Iran wins above.
▸France v Senegal3–10.63.33.9~1 in 15
Senegal goals →
France goals ↓
0123456+
0732
1101041
2121041
39731
4441
5211
6+11
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — France wins below it, Senegal wins above.
▸England v Argentina1–21.62.13.8~1 in 14
Argentina goals →
England goals ↓
0123456+
0129621
11015731
27842
33321
4111
5
6+
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — England wins below it, Argentina wins above.
▸Bosnia & Herzegovina v Qatar3–10.53.23.7~1 in 13
Qatar goals →
Bosnia & Herzegovina goals ↓
0123456+
0522
19941
2111041
39731
45421
5221
6+11
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — Bosnia & Herzegovina wins below it, Qatar wins above.
▸Argentina v Algeria3–00.63.03.6~1 in 12
Algeria goals →
Argentina goals ↓
0123456+
0942
1121141
213931
38621
4431
511
6+1
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — Argentina wins below it, Algeria wins above.
▸Switzerland v Canada2–11.42.23.6~1 in 12
Canada goals →
Switzerland goals ↓
0123456+
0118621
11015731
28852
33421
4111
5
6+
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — Switzerland wins below it, Canada wins above.
▸Portugal v Spain0–11.02.53.5~1 in 12
Spain goals →
Portugal goals ↓
0123456+
0799521
151310521
246531
31221
411
5
6+
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — Portugal wins below it, Spain wins above.
▸Germany v Paraguay1–12.41.13.5~1 in 11
Paraguay goals →
Germany goals ↓
0123456+
0621
110931
213931
310721
4641
5321
6+21
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — Germany wins below it, Paraguay wins above.
▸Croatia v Ghana2–10.92.63.5~1 in 11
Ghana goals →
Croatia goals ↓
0123456+
012631
1141341
212931
3642
4221
511
6+
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — Croatia wins below it, Ghana wins above.
▸Ivory Coast v Norway1–21.22.33.4~1 in 11
Norway goals →
Ivory Coast goals ↓
0123456+
089842
16149521
247531
32321
411
5
6+
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — Ivory Coast wins below it, Norway wins above.
▸Brazil v Japan2–10.92.53.4~1 in 11
Japan goals →
Brazil goals ↓
0123456+
010631
1121351
211941
36521
4221
511
6+
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — Brazil wins below it, Japan wins above.
▸Jordan v Algeria1–20.62.83.4~1 in 11
Algeria goals →
Jordan goals ↓
0123456+
0812138421
141110631
224321
3111
4
5
6+
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — Jordan wins below it, Algeria wins above.
▸Mexico v Ecuador2–01.22.23.4~1 in 10
Ecuador goals →
Mexico goals ↓
0123456+
016941
1151551
210831
3431
411
5
6+
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — Mexico wins below it, Ecuador wins above.
▸France v Sweden3–00.43.03.4~1 in 10
Sweden goals →
France goals ↓
0123456+
0421
17831
211941
310831
46521
5331
6+221
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — France wins below it, Sweden wins above.
▸Germany v Ivory Coast2–10.62.83.4~1 in 10
Ivory Coast goals →
Germany goals ↓
0123456+
05321
181041
2111041
38731
45421
5221
6+11
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — Germany wins below it, Ivory Coast wins above.
▸Norway v England1–20.92.43.3~1 in 10
England goals →
Norway goals ↓
0123456+
0789521
151210631
2365311
312211
411
5
6+
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — Norway wins below it, England wins above.
▸Panama v Croatia0–10.62.83.3~1 in 10
Croatia goals →
Panama goals ↓
0123456+
0610129521
1310107421
2244321
3111
4
5
6+
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — Panama wins below it, Croatia wins above.
▸Portugal v Croatia2–10.82.53.3~1 in 10
Croatia goals →
Portugal goals ↓
0123456+
07431
1101252
2101051
37631
4331
5111
6+
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — Portugal wins below it, Croatia wins above.
▸Spain v Belgium2–10.82.63.3~1 in 10
Belgium goals →
Spain goals ↓
0123456+
07421
1101252
2111051
37631
4331
5111
6+11
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — Spain wins below it, Belgium wins above.
▸Switzerland v Algeria2–01.02.33.3~1 in 10
Algeria goals →
Switzerland goals ↓
0123456+
010741
1121462
210941
35521
4221
511
6+
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — Switzerland wins below it, Algeria wins above.
▸Côte d'Ivoire v Ecuador1–01.91.43.3~1 in 10
Ecuador goals →
Côte d'Ivoire goals ↓
0123456+
01513831
11015831
25631
3221
4
5
6+
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — Côte d'Ivoire wins below it, Ecuador wins above.
▸Cape Verde v Saudi Arabia0–01.71.63.3~1 in 10
Saudi Arabia goals →
Cape Verde goals ↓
0123456+
0109631
1915831
268521
33321
4111
5
6+
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — Cape Verde wins below it, Saudi Arabia wins above.
▸Ghana v Panama1–01.32.03.2~1 in 10
Panama goals →
Ghana goals ↓
0123456+
011852
11115721
28952
34421
4111
5
6+
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — Ghana wins below it, Panama wins above.
▸Saudi Arabia v Uruguay1–12.11.13.2~1 in 9
Uruguay goals →
Saudi Arabia goals ↓
0123456+
0914159421
14119631
223321
311
4
5
6+
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — Saudi Arabia wins below it, Uruguay wins above.
▸Spain v Austria3–00.42.83.2~1 in 9
Austria goals →
Spain goals ↓
0123456+
0621
111921
214931
31172
4641
5321
6+21
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — Spain wins below it, Austria wins above.
▸Mexico v South Korea1–01.12.13.2~1 in 9
South Korea goals →
Mexico goals ↓
0123456+
010741
1111462
29951
35521
4221
51
6+
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — Mexico wins below it, South Korea wins above.
▸Belgium v Egypt1–12.11.13.2~1 in 9
Egypt goals →
Belgium goals ↓
0123456+
0842
1121141
2131041
38621
4431
521
6+11
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — Belgium wins below it, Egypt wins above.
▸Scotland v Brazil0–30.42.73.1~1 in 9
Brazil goals →
Scotland goals ↓
0123456+
07121511632
12996421
212221
3
4
5
6+
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — Scotland wins below it, Brazil wins above.
▸Spain v Argentina1–01.21.93.1~1 in 9
Argentina goals →
Spain goals ↓
0123456+
012852
11115621
29941
34421
4111
5
6+
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — Spain wins below it, Argentina wins above.
▸USA v Australia2–00.82.33.1~1 in 9
Australia goals →
USA goals ↓
0123456+
09521
1121241
2121041
37621
4331
511
6+
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — USA wins below it, Australia wins above.
▸Spain v Saudi Arabia4–00.22.93.1~1 in 9
Saudi Arabia goals →
Spain goals ↓
0123456+
031
1841
21361
31461
41251
5831
6+731
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — Spain wins below it, Saudi Arabia wins above.
▸Switzerland v Colombia0–01.71.43.1~1 in 8
Colombia goals →
Switzerland goals ↓
0123456+
01211841
1815841
256421
32211
41
5
6+
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — Switzerland wins below it, Colombia wins above.
▸France v Morocco2–00.72.33.0~1 in 8
Morocco goals →
France goals ↓
0123456+
08421
1121241
2121041
38621
4431
511
6+1
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — France wins below it, Morocco wins above.
▸Paraguay v France0–10.32.73.0~1 in 8
France goals →
Paraguay goals ↓
0123456+
06121614943
12776421
211211
3
4
5
6+
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — Paraguay wins below it, France wins above.
▸Brazil v Morocco1–12.01.13.0~1 in 8
Morocco goals →
Brazil goals ↓
0123456+
08431
1111251
2111041
37631
4331
511
6+
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — Brazil wins below it, Morocco wins above.
▸Mexico v South Africa2–00.52.53.0~1 in 8
South Africa goals →
Mexico goals ↓
0123456+
0632
1101031
2121041
39731
4541
5221
6+11
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — Mexico wins below it, South Africa wins above.
▸Uruguay v Spain0–10.82.23.0~1 in 8
Spain goals →
Uruguay goals ↓
0123456+
0101312731
15129521
224421
31111
4
5
6+
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — Uruguay wins below it, Spain wins above.
▸USA v Bosnia & Herzegovina2–00.52.53.0~1 in 8
Bosnia & Herzegovina goals →
USA goals ↓
0123456+
0621
110931
213931
310731
4642
5321
6+11
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — USA wins below it, Bosnia & Herzegovina wins above.
▸Brazil v Haiti3–00.22.83.0~1 in 8
Haiti goals →
Brazil goals ↓
0123456+
031
1641
21262
31372
41162
5741
6+741
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — Brazil wins below it, Haiti wins above.
▸Curaçao v Ivory Coast0–20.32.73.0~1 in 8
Ivory Coast goals →
Curaçao goals ↓
0123456+
0481312954
11687532
21222211
3
4
5
6+
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — Curaçao wins below it, Ivory Coast wins above.
▸South Africa v Canada0–10.92.02.9~1 in 8
Canada goals →
South Africa goals ↓
0123456+
0111311621
16139521
235421
31111
4
5
6+
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — South Africa wins below it, Canada wins above.
▸Panama v England0–20.22.72.9~1 in 7
England goals →
Panama goals ↓
0123456+
04813131065
11577532
2122111
3
4
5
6+
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — Panama wins below it, England wins above.
▸Japan v Sweden1–11.81.12.9~1 in 7
Sweden goals →
Japan goals ↓
0123456+
086521
1813731
289621
34531
4221
51
6+
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — Japan wins below it, Sweden wins above.
▸Czech Republic v South Africa1–11.81.12.9~1 in 7
South Africa goals →
Czech Republic goals ↓
0123456+
010631
1121352
211941
36521
4221
511
6+
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — Czech Republic wins below it, South Africa wins above.
▸Argentina v Austria2–00.62.32.9~1 in 7
Austria goals →
Argentina goals ↓
0123456+
0842
1131131
214931
3962
4431
521
6+11
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — Argentina wins below it, Austria wins above.
▸Colombia v Ghana1–00.62.32.9~1 in 7
Ghana goals →
Colombia goals ↓
0123456+
0931
1141031
215931
31062
4531
521
6+1
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — Colombia wins below it, Ghana wins above.
▸Scotland v Morocco0–10.82.12.8~1 in 7
Morocco goals →
Scotland goals ↓
0123456+
0111413731
15139521
224321
3111
4
5
6+
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — Scotland wins below it, Morocco wins above.
▸France v Iraq3–00.12.72.8~1 in 7
Iraq goals →
France goals ↓
0123456+
02
1731
21251
31461
41251
5941
6+941
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — France wins below it, Iraq wins above.
▸Netherlands v Morocco1–11.71.12.8~1 in 7
Morocco goals →
Netherlands goals ↓
0123456+
0118521
11015731
28952
33421
4111
5
6+
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — Netherlands wins below it, Morocco wins above.
▸Australia v Egypt1–11.61.22.7~1 in 7
Egypt goals →
Australia goals ↓
0123456+
01513931
11015831
25631
3121
4
5
6+
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — Australia wins below it, Egypt wins above.
▸Egypt v Iran1–11.61.22.7~1 in 7
Iran goals →
Egypt goals ↓
0123456+
0151062
1131562
28741
3331
411
5
6+
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — Egypt wins below it, Iran wins above.
▸Paraguay v Australia0–01.40.82.2~1 in 5
Australia goals →
Paraguay goals ↓
0123456+
0221251
1171441
2862
3321
41
5
6+
Cells show P(scoreline) %; brighter = more likely. The actual result is ringed in white. The outlined diagonal is draws — Paraguay wins below it, Australia wins above.

Bits = −log₂(probability): each extra bit means half as likely. Upset scores the result (win/draw/loss), Exotic scores the scoreline given that result, and they sum to Total = −log₂ P(exact score) — the odds shown are for that exact scoreline. Click a column header to re-rank (Match sorts by date); click any match for the full heat map.

🔮 Upcoming matches — expected scorelines

Model's single most-likely scoreline (green) and win/draw/win probabilities from the latest closing odds.

No upcoming matches.

ℹ️ How it works

We take the market's pre-match odds, strip the bookmaker margin, and fit a goals model (Dixon–Coles) to get the probability of every scoreline. Each result is then scored in bits — the information-theory unit of surprise: bits = −log₂(probability), so every extra bit means "half as likely". Upset bits score the result itself (−log₂ of the win/draw/loss chance that landed); Exotic bits score the scoreline given that result (how wild the score was for whoever won). They sum to Total bits = −log₂ P(exact score): 4 bits is a 1-in-16 scoreline, 6.5 bits ≈ 1-in-90. Splitting the two keeps a giant-killing 1–0 and a favourite's 7–1 distinct — the first is all upset, the second all exotic — where any single number would rank them side by side. Knockout matches are scored on the 90-minute result, which is what pre-match odds price. The scoring sandbox compares every alternative scoring we considered, including the previous pooled "result like this one" headline (Like%).

🧪 Scoring sandbox

The headline uses one metric; the sandbox shows every alternative we tried (exact bits, S_z, tail probabilities…) side by side. It's a wide table, so it lives on its own page to keep this one tidy on mobile.

Open the scoring sandbox →