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πŸ§ͺ Scoring sandbox

Every surprise metric we tried, side by side β€” the scratch space behind the headline score.

Updated 2026-08-04 15:00 UTC Β· 98 matches played

Click a column header to re-rank (click again to flip); all columns sort most-surprising-first by default. Wide table β€” scroll it sideways to see every metric.

MatchScoreLike% β–ΎP(score)%Exact bitsUpset bitsMargin bitsDir-tailGD 2-sidedFull-tailS_z (Οƒ)
France v England4–60.3%0.0%12.42.24.03.42.69.3+5.82
Algeria v Austria3–31.3%0.2%9.21.41.40.5-0.06.9+4.06
Spain v Cape Verde0–03.9%2.6%5.23.83.83.52.42.6+0.81
Sweden v Tunisia5–15.0%0.6%7.41.05.24.74.15.0+2.48
Uruguay v Cape Verde2–26.1%2.2%5.52.22.21.70.93.1+1.23
Canada v Qatar6–06.5%1.3%6.20.45.95.44.63.6+1.55
England v Ghana0–06.8%4.5%4.53.03.02.61.32.1+0.28
Ecuador v CuraΓ§ao0–06.8%4.8%4.43.13.12.71.92.0+0.30
Qatar v Switzerland1–17.7%5.6%4.23.03.02.51.71.0-0.27
Mexico v England2–38.4%1.6%5.91.42.31.40.63.5+1.48
South Africa v South Korea1–08.6%5.3%4.22.73.32.71.81.5+0.21
USA v Belgium1–48.6%1.3%6.31.64.64.13.63.4+1.47
Netherlands v Sweden5–19.0%1.4%6.20.84.43.83.43.2+1.32
England v Croatia4–29.3%1.1%6.50.82.51.61.03.7+1.72
IR Iran v New Zealand2–29.7%4.4%4.51.91.91.10.02.0+0.29
Australia v TΓΌrkiye2–09.9%2.8%5.22.54.44.03.02.3+0.72
TΓΌrkiye v United States3–29.9%3.4%4.91.92.81.91.31.4+0.15
Ecuador v Germany2–110.1%5.1%4.32.53.22.51.51.3-0.04
Belgium v Iran0–010.5%6.8%3.92.32.31.70.91.3-0.18
Netherlands v Japan2–210.8%5.3%4.21.81.80.9-0.01.4+0.02
United States v Paraguay4–111.0%1.6%5.91.14.03.43.13.4+1.40
Colombia v Portugal0–011.0%6.4%4.01.91.91.00.00.8-0.32
TΓΌrkiye v Paraguay0–111.1%6.1%4.02.12.82.11.61.2-0.09
Norway v Senegal3–211.4%2.7%5.21.32.31.30.52.5+0.74
Brazil v Norway1–211.6%5.7%4.12.33.02.31.51.3-0.15
Morocco v Haiti4–212.1%1.2%6.40.42.10.80.03.9+1.68
Germany v Paraguay1–112.1%8.8%3.52.42.41.90.80.8-0.48
Argentina v Egypt3–213.3%1.5%6.10.52.01.0-0.03.6+1.60
Belgium v Senegal3–213.4%3.0%5.11.02.21.00.52.2+0.58
Argentina v Cape Verde3–213.4%1.0%6.60.22.41.60.84.1+1.94
Saudi Arabia v Uruguay1–115.2%10.7%3.22.12.11.60.40.5-0.49
Belgium v Egypt1–115.5%11.2%3.22.12.11.50.40.4-0.66
Cape Verde v Saudi Arabia0–015.7%10.2%3.31.71.70.6-0.00.2-0.60
Haiti v Scotland0–115.8%5.8%4.10.72.30.8-0.00.8-0.37
CΓ΄te d'Ivoire v Ecuador1–016.1%10.1%3.31.92.51.91.20.8-0.35
Brazil v Morocco1–116.7%12.1%3.02.02.01.30.0-0.0-0.82
Senegal v Iraq5–016.9%4.3%4.60.34.23.42.82.0+0.28
Switzerland v Colombia0–017.3%11.8%3.11.71.70.8-0.00.2-0.66
Switzerland v Bosnia & Herzegovina4–117.4%3.0%5.10.73.22.41.62.5+0.69
France v Spain0–217.7%5.6%4.21.63.42.82.21.4-0.03
England v Argentina1–217.8%7.3%3.81.62.41.61.11.1-0.15
Japan v Sweden1–118.4%13.4%2.91.81.80.8-0.0-0.0-1.03
Portugal v Spain0–118.5%8.5%3.51.02.21.00.50.4-0.56
Czech Republic v South Africa1–118.7%13.4%2.91.81.81.10.00.0-0.83
Ghana v Panama1–019.3%10.5%3.21.32.21.30.50.4-0.58
Tunisia v Japan0–419.5%4.7%4.40.64.03.43.01.8+0.30
Netherlands v Morocco1–120.2%14.6%2.81.71.70.7-0.0-0.0-0.96
Spain v Argentina1–020.6%11.3%3.11.22.21.20.50.4-0.62
Portugal v Uzbekistan5–021.1%6.0%4.10.23.72.92.61.3-0.01
Mexico v South Korea1–021.1%11.0%3.21.12.11.10.50.2-0.65
Switzerland v Canada2–121.2%8.4%3.61.42.31.40.50.8-0.35
New Zealand v Belgium1–521.4%4.1%4.60.32.91.91.21.5+0.03
Germany v CuraΓ§ao7–121.4%4.7%4.40.13.11.50.80.2-0.81
Australia v Egypt1–121.7%15.0%2.71.61.60.7-0.0-0.0-0.76
Egypt v Iran1–121.9%15.2%2.71.61.60.70.0-0.0-0.78
Panama v Croatia0–122.5%9.8%3.30.62.10.9-0.00.4-0.65
Ivory Coast v Norway1–223.3%9.2%3.41.22.21.20.50.2-0.59
Canada v Morocco0–323.4%5.9%4.10.93.63.02.51.5+0.10
Norway v France1–423.7%4.8%4.40.52.81.81.31.2-0.02
Czech Republic v Mexico0–324.0%6.0%4.00.93.52.82.21.0-0.11
Argentina v Switzerland3–124.1%4.9%4.30.82.51.61.11.8+0.32
South Africa v Canada0–124.6%13.2%2.90.92.00.90.50.2-0.74
Uruguay v Spain0–124.9%12.6%3.00.82.00.80.4-0.0-0.75
Iraq v Norway1–425.4%4.4%4.50.32.51.40.81.9+0.31
Norway v England1–225.8%9.8%3.30.92.20.90.40.2-0.73
Scotland v Morocco0–126.4%13.9%2.80.82.00.80.50.0-0.78
New Zealand v Egypt1–326.5%5.8%4.10.72.41.51.01.4+0.03
Mexico v Ecuador2–026.8%9.6%3.41.22.92.41.90.9-0.24
Paraguay v Australia0–027.0%21.7%2.21.41.40.7-0.0-0.0-0.83
Paraguay v France0–127.2%12.1%3.00.32.21.30.40.5-0.61
Brazil v Japan2–127.2%9.4%3.40.92.10.90.50.9-0.44
Croatia v Ghana2–127.4%8.9%3.50.92.00.90.51.0-0.28
Portugal v Croatia2–127.8%9.9%3.30.82.10.80.40.4-0.66
Colombia v Ghana1–028.0%13.8%2.90.62.00.80.00.2-0.77
Switzerland v Algeria2–028.1%10.1%3.31.02.71.91.10.6-0.53
Spain v Belgium2–128.2%9.9%3.30.82.10.80.40.4-0.68
Argentina v Algeria3–029.1%8.2%3.60.63.12.41.71.1-0.31
Germany v Ivory Coast2–129.3%9.7%3.40.62.20.9-0.00.2-0.73
France v Senegal3–129.5%6.8%3.90.62.31.20.91.3-0.22
Jordan v Algeria1–230.3%9.5%3.40.62.00.70.00.7-0.48
Austria v Jordan3–130.7%6.5%4.00.52.21.10.41.4-0.05
Uzbekistan v Colombia1–330.9%6.6%3.90.52.21.10.41.4-0.09
Bosnia & Herzegovina v Qatar3–131.1%7.4%3.70.52.31.10.40.9-0.42
USA v Australia2–031.9%11.7%3.10.82.41.51.00.2-0.74
France v Sweden3–032.7%9.7%3.40.42.61.60.80.2-0.75
France v Morocco2–032.8%12.1%3.00.72.41.41.00.0-0.77
Mexico v South Africa2–033.8%12.4%3.00.52.21.10.4-0.0-0.87
Tunisia v Netherlands1–333.9%6.2%4.00.22.21.1-0.01.2-0.04
Jordan v Argentina1–333.9%6.0%4.10.22.10.8-0.01.3+0.09
USA v Bosnia & Herzegovina2–034.2%12.6%3.00.52.21.00.4-0.0-0.89
Spain v Austria3–034.5%10.8%3.20.42.71.81.40.4-0.64
CuraΓ§ao v Ivory Coast0–234.6%12.9%3.00.32.20.80.0-0.0-0.89
Spain v Saudi Arabia4–035.1%11.7%3.10.22.71.60.80.5-0.69
Scotland v Brazil0–335.2%11.3%3.10.42.71.81.50.5-0.60
Panama v England0–235.3%13.4%2.90.22.20.9-0.0-0.0-0.88
Argentina v Austria2–035.7%13.6%2.90.62.31.20.9-0.0-0.83
Brazil v Haiti3–037.5%12.8%3.00.22.30.90.3-0.0-0.91
France v Iraq3–039.4%14.3%2.80.12.30.7-0.0-0.0-0.90

Like% = headline: chance of a result like this one (same winner, nearby scoreline; lower = rarer). P(score)% = chance of that exact scoreline. Exact = βˆ’logβ‚‚P(score). Upset = βˆ’logβ‚‚P(win/draw/loss). Margin = βˆ’logβ‚‚P(goal diff). Dir-tail = βˆ’logβ‚‚P(margin this extreme or more, in the direction it went) β€” hover for the %. GD 2-sided = any margin at least this unlikely. Full-tail = any scoreline at least this unlikely (flags a 100–102). S_z = entropy-standardized surprise in Οƒ.