Selected notes from the research desk. Each examines a distinct question in full, on its own terms, net of everything. The conclusions are reproduced as the analysis returned them.
The cheapest funding currency on earth underwrote the most expensive assets on earth. That arrangement is ending — and the exit is narrower than the entrance. Six unwind paths, one signal. →
A bottom-up teardown of accelerator pricing power, the hyperscaler custom-silicon threat, and what AI-margin normalization means once a single name sits near the center of the book. →
The strongest argument for a strategic allocation was always that it didn't move with everything else. We went looking for that property in the data. It has become harder to find. →
In preparation. The analysis is, as ever, ongoing — though we have a working expectation of where it resolves.